who would win a war between australia and china who would win a war between australia and china

How Australia could be forced to go to WAR as tensions between China But precision bombing requires the military to have access to space, where orbiting satellites help guide munitions. "There would thus bea high chance that involvement in a war with China would swiftly exceed the toll in casualties suffered in Vietnam and Korea.". We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? If Australia was dragged into a war with China, what would it look like? Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at moment, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue issurely one of the most important discussions we must have. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. If the US went to war with China, who would win? It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. "And oh, by the way, it's just going to get harder as we get further into the . "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. "It may be argued that ANZUS would inevitably push Australia to war but we should not be lazy in coming [to] that conclusion. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. Army Leader Warns About Potential Land War with China "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. Its artificial island fortresses are unsinkable outposts. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. It has just about every contingency covered. Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. Earlier this month, the United States Air Force staged a demonstration involving four heavily armed F-16 fighters. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. And what would such a fight look like? This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. And the West may not be able to do much about it. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. But it is already outnumbered. Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. I am sure that survivors of war may have a more considered view. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. Who would win in a battle between the U.S. and Australia? "But it is an entirely different story with China. "For my part Australians may be able to defend our nation because of our geographic good luck. Australias role in such a significant potential conflict has been the subject of intense debate in recent years. "Australia has always had a fascination about China, going well back in our history to pre-federation days. And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. Grim prediction if war breaks out between US and China - Yahoo! The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. But rhetoric about the international rules-based order and Chinas failure to sign up to all its provisions seems to be "lecturing and hectoring" rather than working assiduously on overcoming differences of perspective. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . Where are our statesmen?". I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. Today, the analysis of Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military, are investigated. But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. While these have been costly, they also provided invaluable combat experience. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. What would war with China look like for Australia? In providing for our own defence we ought to be able to make sufficient and good quality plans provided we have the will to do so. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. What war between Australia and China could look like if Taiwan conflict "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. China-US superpower showdown: military strength Credit:Matthew Absalom-Wong. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. "Now, as we approach reaching 10 billion people on earth, we see more difficult problems arising from this population burden. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Stavros Atlamazoglou. A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China). "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. "Along with military mobilisation China would need to prepare its citizens and economy for a protracted conflict. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. Who has a better and stronger military, navy, air force, etc? "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" Were working to restore it. No doubt Australian passions would run high. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. India and Pakistan take pains to avoid such escalation. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. The US must operate from a few exposed facilities such as Okinawa and Guam. It would not require the assent of the Governor General and is entirely in the hands of the prime minister of the day. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. But China has more at stake, because in the long run Taiwan matters a lot moreto China than to America. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. The Chinese government last week released a 12-point plan it devised to bring about an end to . of Strategic Forum in Canberra, Australia. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. "It is not clear how formidable Taiwan'sdefences would prove to be in the face of a Chinese invasion. The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. "This would be followed by a sea-crossing phase, a landing phase and a consolidation phase. 'Nuclear': Grim prediction for what war with China would look like - Yahoo! The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. If the US went to war with China, who would win? - Nikkei Asia "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. A blockade, he says, would mean 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. Chinas military build-up is making a difference. That is massive! Part 2. "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. "It would also have to be true that if any of the commentators were taken seriously the impact of this reality of preparing for war with China would now be affecting us all. As with the Gulf War in 2003, Washington is always keen to enlist as many countries as possible to spread the cost and political risk. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Jamie Seidel @JamieSeidel 5 min read May 25, 2020 - 11:05AM The United States just lost a battle to save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and it's not the first time. "Melissa Conley Tyler and I (and others) have dealt with the Taiwan question in our joint paper. Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. It can deny the United States control of the air within 300 nautical miles (556km) from China's coast. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. Guam is 1,300 nautical miles and Honolulu (Pearl Harbor) is over 4,200 nautical miles from Taiwan. Ifthey think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. It depends how it starts. "A cross-strait Invasion would involve a shaping phase to achieve air, land, sea, and cyber superiority. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. Then theres the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. "Furthermore, in the lead up to March 20, 2003,I was working at Oxford and bearing witness to significant questioning of the intention to invade Iraq through public dissent "not in our name Mr Blair". China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". Aukus: Australia's big gamble on the US over China - BBC News Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. Taiwan is within that zone: 180 nautical miles. A war with China over Taiwan, awful as that would be, involves no Australian national interests. All have been involved in sensitive military operations. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. How Japan is fortifying a string of tiny islands to fence in China, Taiwan takes lessons from Ukraine as it speeds development of drones for military use, Visiting US Marine Corps chief warns 'everything in the cupboard' needed to prevent war with China, Man discovers two highly venomous species battling in his shed, Inside the family succession drama threatening to change the K-pop industry forever. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Would Japan? US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert What War with China Would Look Like, Part 2, will be published on Tuesdayand feature interviews with Allan Behm,former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department, and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. China is a country located in Eastern Asia with an area of 9,596,961 km2 (land boundries: 22,457 km and costline 14,500 km). AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article, Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman, Looking deeper at China's military strategy, The conversation we need to have about China, These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. What war between China and the US looks like | news.com.au Australia Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. Nor can a military modelled in its image. The geographic focus is decisive. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. Some wouldn't survive. But it doesnt follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan, Professor Hugh White noted in 2019. China vs Australia | Comparison military strength - ArmedForces In a rare joint statement, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council said it was their primary . What would war with China look like for Australia? At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. I am 68 and I am certain we will be at war with China within my lifetime. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. Beijing has already put its assets in place. A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. "But the prospect of war with China raises very different possibilities including for example, the significant likelihood that aircraft, ships and submarines we committed would be destroyed, with the potential for very high casualties among the crews. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. Here are some tips. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. "Today we can see change for the worse all over the globe. Russia-Ukraine war: Why does China suddenly seem to want to broker "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. 3-min read. The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. The structure of the military is also different. The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist' Its army is now deploying troops to Africa for peacekeeping missions that give first-hand experience in conflict zones after decades of relative peace. The US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers hold 96. A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. US v China war: If conflict broke out, who would win? Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie, Australias most senior military leader asChief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002, Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department. No one can win nuclear war, Russia, China, Britain, U.S., France say